The newfound populist fame of CNBC's Rick Santelli is a mystery, too. His recent rant against Obama's mortgage bailout plan was really just more not-so-thoughtful advice, wasn't it? His seemed to be just another yelp from the network that surely did its part showing people the way to the bottom, now telling the president with complete conviction that a lot of those people shouldn't be helped back up.
It's weird and disconcerting that after all that has happened there are still so many experts out there willing to dispense wisdom with utter assuredness, day after day, despite having been so spectacularly wrong in the past. Their confidence saps my own. For those of us in the advice business -- and this extends beyond just investment advice to everything else in our lives that now exists in the firm grip of uncertainty -- the challenge is: How do I tell people what to do when prospects are so grim and outcomes so completely unpredictable? How do I acknowledge the limits of what I know while still maintaining credibility?
These are questions the Jim Cramers of the world, and the ubiquitous and somewhat frighteningly undaunted Suze Orman, don't seem very interested in dealing with. (I should give Cramer credit for admitting he was wrong on Bear, though he wrapped his mea culpa in a blustery version of "I was actually mostly right.")...
The more terrifying and destabilizing the news, the more the financial-news sages seem to commit themselves to dispensing advice with unblinking certitude.
Maybe some of you witnessed the surreal scene a few weeks ago when the economists Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Dr. Doom and Black Swan, as they're now routinely called in the media) appeared on the network and outlined the end of global finance as we know it. In response to their extraordinarily downbeat assessment, Roubini and Taleb were asked repeatedly for . . . stock tips. Really. The conversation boiled down to: There's a profound crisis in the essential structure upon which the world's economy is built, potentially unlike anything we've witnessed before. Okay, great, thanks for that, Doom and Swan! So what should folks do with their kids' college funds?
Yes, it's important to think about how to save for the future. It's just that this example illustrates how uncomfortable we are with not knowing, and how unpracticed we are at thinking beyond "What's the news I can use?" Obviously part of that is a function of human nature, since we want someone to show us the way in moments of confusion and anxiety. And it's also, of course, a function of television, since "yes, but . . . " and "I don't know" aren't exactly the keys to ratings gold.
But there is something uniquely American about our craving to be told what to do, at least if the number of TV shows and radio programs and books and magazines devoted to doing just that are any indication. We're a people who like to maximize -- our wealth and our connections and our potential -- and for the last several years the message has been delivered, ever more loudly and clearly, from more and more sources, that if we buy X or do Y or follow the example of Z, then maximum happiness will indeed be ours.
Those were good times for the advice industry. (According to Nielsen BookScan, for instance, more than 13 million self-help books were sold in America in 2008, up from about 9.5 million in 2004.) But those times are gone, along with our retirement savings and our job security and the quaint notion that our homes should double as giant cash machines. The lexicon of maximization, the advice-givers' tone of certainty, now rings untrustworthy and hollow...
The language of psychotherapy -- the recognition that few things in life are black and white, that it mostly consists of perplexing shades of gray -- seems immensely more helpful now than the self-assured, directive lingo we've all become accustomed to speaking or hearing. The advice I trust the most now comes wrapped in doubt. Here's what I'd do, and this is why I think it's right, but I'm not sure. What's implicit is the acknowledgment that very little is a sure thing, that if we follow this advice, we're following at our own risk, and that every potential gain also carries within it the possibility of loss.
Imagine where we might be if we'd spoken in a language that recognized this all along.
Japan Finally Got Inflation. Nobody Is Happy About It.
10 months ago
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Another great post. I, too, have learned to become wary of all of these pundits who seem to have all of the answers when they don't. And I like my financial planners, not b/c they hand out good advice, but b/c they walk us through all of our options and then let us decide for ourselves what to do. They're also pretty good at reassuring us about the decisions we have made. I actually wrote a post on taking your advice on advice while I was visiting my sister -- basically, I decided to strip the word "should" from my vocabulary and speak in term of examples as opposed to saying that she should do something. For instance, I told her about how much I liked my iPhone on how easy it was to use, even if you hate technology instead of saying "you should get an iPhone." It made our time together so much more pleasant. And I really do think that not giving people advice unless they specifically ask for it is probably the best way to go -- even if you just know that you're right. :)
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